We managed to survive the volatility and uncertainties of October to be up 7.5% on our shares (for the month from Interactive brokers here) whilst most other assets went sideways. However, as inflation increases, the threat of rising interest rates will continue to be the main factor that will make investors struggle to justify high share valuations. We know that October and November are historically the most dangerous periods for shares to be sold before many go away for Christmas holidays. That means the risks are still present but adjustments are well underway and we hope that soon the repositioning by many fund managers will be over. The Bell portfolio report is here. Some of the interesting shares, that had decent highs during the month when other shares were falling, but then fell back by the end of the month are A2 Milk and Camplify. A2 Milk disappointed the market with a poor report as China’s bans continues to affect their results but I think the sell-off (from above $7 to end at $6.25 which is about breakeven again) was overdone and it will recover next year as they make some changes. Camplify shares raced up to a $4.80 before ending back at $3.94 (still way above the $1.39 price we bought) as some investors must have taken “profits”. However, we will hold this as there is still a lot of upside potential as they expand into other countries – including New Zealand aquisitions that will continue to solidify their dominant position in the Southern Hemisphere. They already have operations in the UK and Spain with other regions likely to be added in the years ahead. Some interesting gains could eventuate from recent IPO Intech Minerals (ITM) and SPP Hazer (HZR) next month. Takovers could affect some holdings in the year ahead too.
Interestingly, the total financial year to date (FYTD) return is currently is also about 7.7% (which includes all assets here) and soon we will start to invest the remaining cash in a mix of direct shares and fund managers. So far the fund managers, whilst good for passive investors, have not done well and confirmed my concerns during this period. For active management, nothing beats investing in direct shares and being able to place orders to both BUY and SELL them. In addition, it gives us greater control over fees, cashflows, and tax.
Cryptocurrencies improved again over the month despite the high volatility and daily movements as high as +/- 10% per day on our holdings! Talk abounds of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 eventually but who knows when? If ever the case can be made for short gains, then cryptos are probably the best assets to use. However, the “gas” (i.e. energy used) and broker fees means that you have to give away as much as 2% (i.e. 1% each time you BUY and SELL) of the profits plus you would need to spend a considerable amount of time charting, watching, or placing orders to get a result. It’s not something I generally want to do at this stage of my life – as time is limited and there’s many other better things to do. It’s quite insane that the best performer is SHIBA – a game token! I think games are extremely risky and can easily be replaced by another game when the FAD passes. Of course, who knows when that will be? It’s also crazy that the only people probably with enough time are unemployed, or weathly professional gamers, or young people without many commitments. But it does tend to leave out the majority of people (including me) that are unlikely to ever get into the hundres of games out there – especially SHIBA INU? If there’s anything I have noted it’s that there’s rarely a two day consecutive increase or decrease in most cryptos. So when we see some have 2 or 3 daily increases it’s basically a “fool’s game” to buy them as SHIBA yesterday fell 30% but then increased 6% today (at time of writing) – so you may as well go to a “casino” (though I am not recommending it) and try your luck there?
Details of the holdings can be seen below but note the changes are daily and not monthly.
